The points allocation for qualifying is ludicrous. In case you've forgotten, here's a primer from Motorsports Talk. Basically, whoever tops the charts tomorrow gets 33 points, with everyone else getting one less point for each position down to a single point for 33rd. Sunday's Fast Nine then have up to 9 additional points available: 9 points to the pole winner down to 1 point for 9th. In theory, someone could earn 42 points this weekend. Last year, someone did in the form of Ed Carpenter.
Keep in mind, for a "normal" (i.e. no double points) race, second place is worth 40 points. IndyCar has set up a distinct possibility that eight laps will count for more points than a second in a full race. The eight laps are the most stressful of the season for the drivers, but it's still eight laps. This didn't affect last year's title, but the 500 qualifying points did help Helio hold on to second. In the end, he beat Dixon by just 5 points. Helio made the Fast Nine, started 4th, and earned 37 points. Dixon qualified 14th on Saturday and earned 20 points.
Yes, this is the Indianapolis 500 and thus nobody gives two craps about the championship right now, and rightly so. However, there will be ten more races after the 500 and a champion to be crowned. This system creates the potential of the next two days being the difference in crowning that champion, and as important as Indy 500 Time Trials are, that puts a little too much importance on it.
Other Thoughts Going into Qualifying:
- With Fast Friday relatively quiet due to conditions, it's hard to tell exactly who the pole favorites are. That said, I'm pretty confident it will be a Chevy. I'm guessing it's between the Penskes, the top two Ganassis, and Carpenter (and Ed only because you can't write off the two time defending polesitter). If I have to pick one, I'll pick Dixon.
- Likewise, I suspect Chevy will have most of the Fast Nine. Hondas I could see sneak in there are Munoz, Hinchcliffe, Rahal, and if he can keep up what's been an impressive week, Gabby Chaves.
- At the other end, barring someone walling it tomorrow, it's hard to see anyone but Buddy Lazier being the odd man out. The team ran just eight laps today at a top speed of 216 mph. In contrast, Pippa Mann went out right at the end of the day in a rebuilt car and topped 225 in three laps. Since this weekend doesn't look like it's going to be pretty for Buddy, so let's take a quick look back to when he did something special on Bump Day.
- If Buddy can find the magic, then the most likely candidates to be bumped are each of the Coyne cars (Pippa because of the rebuilt car, the 19 because of the driver timeshare, and Huertas because he isn't that fast), followed by Clauson. Darkhorse: Tagliani, who hasn't run much and hasn't been particularly fast when he has. Huge darkhorse and potential shocker: Bourdais, who's been down on the speed charts all week, almost as down as Clauson.
- Please stay away rain. You saw how complicated the process is now? Imagine if rain takes a bite out of track (and TV) time.
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